There’s a different feeling in the air this year. People walking into stores or scrolling through retail apps aren’t holding out for jaw-dropping markdowns. Instead, holiday shoppers are bracing for smaller deals, and many are ready to pay more than they did last season.
The latest data shows that 40% of consumers expect fewer discounts during the 2025 holiday season, an eight-point jump from last year. This isn’t just a number; it reflects a shift in mindset. With tighter belts and lighter wallets, expectations are changing. And that shift is where smart brands are finding opportunity.
Fewer discounts don’t mean fewer opportunities
At first glance, fewer deals might sound worrying: slower growth, higher prices, and cautious spending. But look closer, and you see space to rethink how to connect with people.
Shoppers aren’t giving up on holiday spending. They’re becoming more intentional. They want value, but not just in the form of slashed price tags. What matters is whether a product feels worth it. Marketing now shines by highlighting reliability, building trust, and showing that every purchase carries meaning.
For entrepreneurs, this is good news. If holiday shoppers are expecting fewer discounts, small businesses don’t need to race to the bottom. Instead, they can focus on experiences and stories that make their products feel valuable in ways bigger brands can’t always match.
Where shoppers are looking for deals
How people shop is changing, too. Just two years ago, 61% of consumers preferred brand-specific websites. In 2025, that number has dropped to 40%. Instead, multibrand retail websites and apps are becoming the go-to.
Some key stats:
- 58% plan to buy through retail websites on computers
- 43% are leaning toward retail apps
- Only 12% will use brand apps
- Social media is down to 7%
This shows that holiday shoppers are seeking variety and convenience. They don’t want to jump between multiple brand sites; they want everything in one place, with clear and straightforward deals. For smaller businesses, this highlights the importance of being present where customers already are. Selling on marketplaces or multibrand platforms can be far more effective than investing in a standalone app.
Timing is everything
Another insight from the latest report is timing. A quarter of consumers bought gifts during summer sales last year, meaning early activations are a golden opportunity.
But here’s the twist: while some buy early, many still wait for deeper discounts closer to December. In 2024, average advertised discounts jumped from 38% in September to 43% by December, while first-time customer discounts dropped by 11% over the same period.
This shows holiday shoppers are strategic. They weigh early peace of mind against waiting for last-minute deals. For brands, this means timing campaigns effectively, through bundles, loyalty perks, or targeted discounts, can be more impactful than blanket markdowns.
Lessons for marketers and entrepreneurs
Heavy discounting isn’t always the best approach. Flooding the market with markdowns can hurt profitability, and savvy consumers can tell when a brand is cutting corners. Instead, personalization works.
Loyalty programs, exclusive bundles, and thoughtful promotions stand out. A customer who feels recognized is more likely to return than one chasing a one-off bargain. Smaller brands can compete by offering personal touches, direct connections, and compelling storytelling, often more powerful than a steep discount.
If holiday shoppers expect fewer discounts this year, it’s an opportunity to make purchases feel meaningful, strengthen relationships, and build trust that lasts well beyond December.
The bigger picture
2025 may bring slower sales growth, but a marketing strategy matters more than ever. Consumers are shifting habits, where they shop, when they buy, and what they expect.
For businesses paying attention, the path is clear: highlight value, meet shoppers on the platforms they prefer, and offer promotions that feel personal. Those who embrace this approach won’t just survive a cautious holiday season; they’ll create stronger loyalty that extends far beyond the holidays.
In short, holiday shoppers may be preparing for fewer discounts, but brands that adapt with empathy, creativity, and strategy will gain trust that outweighs markdowns.
FAQs
How can small brands offer value without heavy discounts?
Focus on loyalty perks, personalized offers, or bundles that feel meaningful—not just cutting prices across the board.
When’s the best time to run promotions if discounts are smaller?
Run early limited offers to capture early buyers and use more noticeable promotions later when shoppers compare deals.How do brands decide who gets bigger deals vs. smaller discounts?
Use customer data to segment audiences: reward loyalty members or frequent buyers slightly more than casual shoppers.